Home

Most discussions of auto-deleveraging (ADL) (post 1, post 2 and the related threads x.com 1, x.com 2, x.com 3) start at the wrong place. They start with who got hurt, how much, and whether the rule felt fair. By the time those questions are asked, the interesting part of the problem is already over. The system has failed in a very specific way,...

Why the Carden Method Works (and What the Brain Has Been Trying to Tell Us) I’m writing this for a personal reason: my seven-year-old lives in a world where answers are cheap. Watching him learn forced me to ask a harder question: if answers no longer matter, what does? In the age of AI, producing an answer costs almost nothing. Verifying it...

How 1–5% reinvestment can create circularity, amplification, and cascades - without invoking accounting round-tripping Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, gets asked a question that sounds almost silly until you try to answer it. He’s talking about Nvidia investing a low single-digit percentage into AI companies and partners, and the interview...

Understanding why prices change is the oldest problem in markets. “Supply and demand” is the standard answer, but it rarely tells you how imbalance gets converted into price. In practice, the mechanism lives in the tape: what prints, in what order, and with what persistence. This framing aligns with the APS Viewpoint Decoding the Dynamics of Su...

You know the feeling. You quote both sides. The spread is one tick. Fills arrive often enough to feel productive. Then the market corrects you, quietly. A sell hits your bid. Then another. Then a short burst. You’re long now, but it still looks fine: the bid queue is thick and the book looks “supported.” And then the bid disappears. Not as a...

A sentence keeps showing up in conversations about AI, usually with optimism: “When memorization becomes cheap, understanding becomes valuable.” Sometimes it shows up in technical clothing: “When code production becomes cheap, verification becomes valuable.” The claim sounds like simple economics: when one thing gets cheaper, the sca...

If you want to understand a machine, don’t start with the pitch deck. Put it on a lift. Trace the pipes. Find the parts that glow when you push them too hard. “Equity perpetuals” keep resurfacing in crypto as live markets: TSLA, NVDA, sometimes broad indices. The promise is simple to say out loud: trade equity price exposure like BTC-24/7, wit...

TL;DR: Who’s right about the ADL trilemma? A lot of people are tired already, so here’s the scoreboard up front. Dan is right that: The “ADL trilemma” in Tarun’s paper does not apply to all perp venues in all regimes. The trilemma only bites when the exchange is in a structural deficit regime: expected tail shortfalls...